Ananke Market Morning Teaser — Thu Oct 15

Thursday’s 8:30 ET data barrage landed hot across the board: September PPI up 1.3% for the month and 6.3% for the year — the biggest wholesale-inflation jumps since 2022 — core PPI at 0.7% vs 0.3% expected, retail sales up 0.8% vs 0.3% expected, and jobless claims holding below 200,000 at 199k.

The market answered with rotation, not panic: the Dow climbed about 1.2% toward 52,240 while the Nasdaq managed just a 0.15% gain, as money favored defensives and energy over AI leverage.

Gold miners were the day’s runaway bid — $GDX$ up nearly 4% with spot gold near $4,143 — while oil keeps climbing on Strait of Hormuz shipping attacks, Brent near $104, and $USO$ up about 2.5%.

The AI-debt stress hasn’t left: CoreWeave sank as much as 8.3% intraday to its lowest since May 2025, its 5-year CDS near 1,000 bps implying roughly 63% five-year default odds, with its 2031 bonds yielding above 16%; $SOXL$ is still down nearly 3% on the day.

Ananke’s rule-based read: the 1:30 PM LONG flips on $TQQQ$ and $SOXL$ have moved green (+1.66% and +0.52%) as chips steadied, the $GDX$ short sits underwater on the gold run (-2.45%), and the $USO$ long since October 1 keeps compounding at +7.3%.

With Warsh speaking Friday ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC, does the rotation into energy and gold miners hold — or does the AI-debt unwind drag the tape back down?

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