📊 Investment Research Report: Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Date: June 7, 2025

Ticker: TSLA (NasdaqGS)

Closing Price (June 6, 2025): $295.14

After-Hours: $297.67 (+0.86%)

🧩 Executive Summary

Tesla (TSLA) has entered a critical inflection point. Following the completion of a major Fibonacci-driven wave (labeled A-B-C-D), recent price action indicates the start of a potential bearish reversal phase. The stock has fallen below its 200-day EMA, a significant technical support level, while momentum indicators show weakness. Based on wave symmetry and historical behavior, TSLA may be entering a D-E-F corrective wave, with realistic downside targets ranging from $190 to $140, and a maximum retracement toward $110 if broader conditions deteriorate.

📐 Technical Analysis Overview

🔹 EMA Structure (Daily Chart)

• EMA15 (152.49) > EMA30 (169.27) > EMA200 (239.89) — Bullish EMA alignment remains intact.
• However, the price ($295.14) is now below the 200-day EMA, signaling a breakdown risk.

🔹 MACD

• MACD Line: -27.50, Signal Line: -23.58 — Momentum is positive but declining.
• MACD histogram is narrowing; a bearish crossover is approaching.

🔹 Stochastic Momentum

• %K = -68.00, %D = -62.98 — Indicates momentum loss.
• Suggests increasing bearish pressure, especially if momentum crosses further down.

📈 Fibonacci Wave Analysis (Daily Chart)

📍 Identified Wave Pattern:

• A-B-C-D: Bullish wave completed from $110 (Dec 2022) to ~$375 (2025).
• D-E-F: A new corrective wave in progress. E appears to be a lower high, and F has begun.

📉 Downside Targets:

📉 Probability Assessment of Further Decline

📰 Fundamental & Macro Considerations

⚠ Bearish Catalysts

• EV demand softening globally, especially in China and Europe.
• Increased competition from BYD, Ford, and others eroding margin.
• Disappointment in FSD/Robotaxi rollout could hurt growth narrative.
• Macro headwinds: High rates, recession risk, and equity multiple compression.
• CEO distraction or controversy (e.g., Elon Musk shifts focus or legal scrutiny).

🔑 Bullish Offsets (to monitor)

• Positive surprise in deliveries, margin rebound.
• Major AI/FSD breakthrough announcement.
• Macro easing, Fed rate cuts, or EV subsidies.

📌 Trading Strategy Recommendations

🧠 Conclusion

Tesla appears to have completed a full bullish Fibonacci wave (A-B-C-D), and is now likely entering a D-E-F corrective wave. Key signals — price below EMA200, weakening momentum, and historical symmetry — point to an increased risk of a multi-month downtrend.

Unless TSLA quickly reclaims the 200-day EMA and momentum reverses, the stock may test deeper support zones:

• Base case: $220–$190
• Probable bear target: $140
• Extreme case: $110

📎 Suggested Next Steps

• Monitor MACD crossover and price reaction to EMA200.
• Consider protective puts or bear spreads if already long.
• Evaluate sentiment and delivery data for confirmation.

⚠️ Risk Disclaimer

This report is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. The opinions and analyses expressed herein are based on publicly available data and technical models as of the publication date and are subject to change without notice. Investing in securities involves risk, including the loss of principal. You should do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author and OpenAI assume no responsibility or liability for any actions taken based on the contents of this report.