加入微信交流群
🔹 每日模型图分享
🔹 策略实盘实测
🔹 投资人交流圈
👉 扫码加入

Join Our Discord Server
🌐 English-friendly
📊 Strategy & Signals
🤝 Real-time Interaction
👉 Scan to Join



Investment analysis report for Hang Seng Index (HSI) for next week

zychen Posted on 2025-07-04 21:33 ET total Views: 108

Here is your investment analysis report for Hang Seng Index (HSI) for next week based on the hourly signal chart provided:


1. Current Technical Situation

Price Structure

  • The index is consolidating near the upper Bollinger Band zone, but recently flattened with slight weakness into Friday’s close.
  • Last signal was a Short triggered with price near ~24000-24500 zone.

Quantitative MACD

  • MACD histogram is negative and expanding, indicating momentum is shifting down.
  • MACD lines (yellow vs white) show a bearish crossover, with the yellow line below the white and both sloping down.

Quantitative RSI

  • RSI also shows a bearish crossover with momentum decaying from prior highs.
  • RSI value is trending down but still far from oversold (30), implying room for further downside.

2. Key Levels

  • Resistance: 24750-25000 (previous highs and upper Bollinger Band zone)
  • Immediate Support: 24000 (recent consolidation level)
  • Major Support: 23250-23500 (yellow MA line zone) and ~22500 (grey MA zone)

3. Signals Review

  • Recent Short signal remains open with no reversal indication yet.
  • Past successful Long trades occurred when MACD and RSI showed positive crossovers near mid-lower zones, which is not the current condition.

4. Strategy Recommendations

Short Bias: Maintain or initiate short positions as momentum remains negative.

  • Entry: If price retraces to 24300-24500 with MACD & RSI still bearish, consider adding shorts.
  • Target: 24000, then 23500 if momentum persists.

Long Setup Watch: Do not initiate longs until:

  • MACD histogram contracts towards zero with crossover up, and
  • RSI turns up from near 30-40 zones with a clean yellow-white crossover.

5. Risk Management

  • Tight stop above 24750 if entering fresh shorts to limit risk against trend reversals.
  • If already in shorts from previous signals, adjust stops to lock profits near 24500.

6. Overall Outlook for Next Week (July 8-12, 2025)

🔻 Bearish to Neutral Bias

  • Indicators favor continued correction or consolidation early in the week.
  • Watch for mid-week stabilization if supports hold, potentially setting up a reversal in the second half of the week.


High level analysis:

Here is the macro context analysis for Hang Seng Index (HSI) next week (July 8-12, 2025) to integrate with your technical signal report:


1. China / Hong Kong Economic Backdrop

Recent Data

  • PMI figures released last week showed slight expansion (Manufacturing PMI ~50.4, Services PMI ~53.1), indicating modest economic stabilization.
  • Property sector remains under structural pressure despite easing measures; liquidity issues persist for smaller developers.

Policy Environment

  • PBOC maintains an accommodative stance, but no major rate cuts were announced in June.
  • Market expectations are split between further easing versus a “wait and see” approach as authorities monitor financial stability risks.

Geopolitical Factors

  • US-China tensions remain elevated, particularly around technology export restrictions.
  • Investors are cautious awaiting further details on any upcoming US-China high-level meetings later in July.

2. Global Macro Drivers

US Federal Reserve

  • Fed minutes this week indicated no immediate rate cuts despite market hopes, keeping global liquidity tighter.
  • Strong US economic data supports the Fed’s hawkish stance, leading to a stronger USD, generally negative for EM equities including HSI.

Global Equities Sentiment

  • Global risk appetite is neutral to slightly bearish due to:
  • Continued geopolitical risks (Taiwan, Ukraine).
  • Rising concerns over global growth slowdown in H2 2025.

Commodities / Inflation

  • Oil remains in a tight range (~$82-85 WTI) with limited direct positive spillover to Hong Kong.
  • Mainland inflation remains subdued (~0.7% YoY CPI), giving policymakers room to stimulate further if necessary.

3. Implications for HSI

🔻 Bearish to Neutral Macro Bias

  • Lack of strong positive catalysts in domestic fundamentals.
  • No major external monetary easing expected next week.
  • Global equities are cautious, and China remains in a structural adjustment period with uneven growth.

4. Next Week Key Macro Events

📅 July 10 (Wednesday): China CPI / PPI release

  • Markets will assess deflation risks; lower CPI could trigger renewed easing hopes.

📅 July 12 (Friday): US PPI and University of Michigan sentiment

  • Will influence global risk appetite heading into the weekend.

5. Strategic Macro Conclusion

✅ Combine with technical signals:

  • Technical short bias is reinforced by neutral-to-bearish macro context.
  • Absent any surprise easing or stimulus headlines, upside will likely be capped near recent highs.
  • If CPI data midweek disappoints (i.e. remains very low), short-term stimulus hopes could trigger a relief rally; otherwise, market remains in a drift-down or sideways phase.



⚠️ 风险免责声明(Risk Disclaimer)

以上交易计划仅供教育和信息参考之用,不构成任何金融或投资建议。投资交易具有风险,包括本金亏损的风险。过往表现不代表未来结果。您应对自己的投资决策负责。在进行任何投资或交易前,请务必咨询具有资质的金融顾问。



Comments (0)

Add a Comment
Back to Posts

Live Signal Charts, available during market hours