Here is your investment analysis report for Hang Seng Index (HSI) for next week based on the hourly signal chart provided:

1. Current Technical Situation

✅ Price Structure

• The index is consolidating near the upper Bollinger Band zone, but recently flattened with slight weakness into Friday’s close.
• Last signal was a Short triggered with price near ~24000-24500 zone.

✅ Quantitative MACD

• MACD histogram is negative and expanding, indicating momentum is shifting down.
• MACD lines (yellow vs white) show a bearish crossover, with the yellow line below the white and both sloping down.

✅ Quantitative RSI

• RSI also shows a bearish crossover with momentum decaying from prior highs.
• RSI value is trending down but still far from oversold (30), implying room for further downside.

2. Key Levels

• Resistance: 24750-25000 (previous highs and upper Bollinger Band zone)
• Immediate Support: 24000 (recent consolidation level)
• Major Support: 23250-23500 (yellow MA line zone) and ~22500 (grey MA zone)

3. Signals Review

• Recent Short signal remains open with no reversal indication yet.
• Past successful Long trades occurred when MACD and RSI showed positive crossovers near mid-lower zones, which is not the current condition.

4. Strategy Recommendations

✔ Short Bias: Maintain or initiate short positions as momentum remains negative.

• Entry: If price retraces to 24300-24500 with MACD & RSI still bearish, consider adding shorts.
• Target: 24000, then 23500 if momentum persists.

✔ Long Setup Watch: Do not initiate longs until:

• MACD histogram contracts towards zero with crossover up, and
• RSI turns up from near 30-40 zones with a clean yellow-white crossover.

5. Risk Management

• Tight stop above 24750 if entering fresh shorts to limit risk against trend reversals.
• If already in shorts from previous signals, adjust stops to lock profits near 24500.

6. Overall Outlook for Next Week (July 8-12, 2025)

🔻 Bearish to Neutral Bias

• Indicators favor continued correction or consolidation early in the week.
• Watch for mid-week stabilization if supports hold, potentially setting up a reversal in the second half of the week.

High level analysis:

Here is the macro context analysis for Hang Seng Index (HSI) next week (July 8-12, 2025) to integrate with your technical signal report:

1. China / Hong Kong Economic Backdrop

✅ Recent Data

• PMI figures released last week showed slight expansion (Manufacturing PMI ~50.4, Services PMI ~53.1), indicating modest economic stabilization.
• Property sector remains under structural pressure despite easing measures; liquidity issues persist for smaller developers.

✅ Policy Environment

• PBOC maintains an accommodative stance, but no major rate cuts were announced in June.
• Market expectations are split between further easing versus a “wait and see” approach as authorities monitor financial stability risks.

✅ Geopolitical Factors

• US-China tensions remain elevated, particularly around technology export restrictions.
• Investors are cautious awaiting further details on any upcoming US-China high-level meetings later in July.

2. Global Macro Drivers

✅ US Federal Reserve

• Fed minutes this week indicated no immediate rate cuts despite market hopes, keeping global liquidity tighter.
• Strong US economic data supports the Fed’s hawkish stance, leading to a stronger USD, generally negative for EM equities including HSI.

✅ Global Equities Sentiment

• Global risk appetite is neutral to slightly bearish due to:
• Continued geopolitical risks (Taiwan, Ukraine).
• Rising concerns over global growth slowdown in H2 2025.

✅ Commodities / Inflation

• Oil remains in a tight range (~$82-85 WTI) with limited direct positive spillover to Hong Kong.
• Mainland inflation remains subdued (~0.7% YoY CPI), giving policymakers room to stimulate further if necessary.

3. Implications for HSI

🔻 Bearish to Neutral Macro Bias

• Lack of strong positive catalysts in domestic fundamentals.
• No major external monetary easing expected next week.
• Global equities are cautious, and China remains in a structural adjustment period with uneven growth.

4. Next Week Key Macro Events

📅 July 10 (Wednesday): China CPI / PPI release

• Markets will assess deflation risks; lower CPI could trigger renewed easing hopes.

📅 July 12 (Friday): US PPI and University of Michigan sentiment

• Will influence global risk appetite heading into the weekend.

5. Strategic Macro Conclusion

✅ Combine with technical signals:

• Technical short bias is reinforced by neutral-to-bearish macro context.
• Absent any surprise easing or stimulus headlines, upside will likely be capped near recent highs.
• If CPI data midweek disappoints (i.e. remains very low), short-term stimulus hopes could trigger a relief rally; otherwise, market remains in a drift-down or sideways phase.

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