Daily Signal Chart:

📈 SPY Weekly Investment Analysis and Strategy Report

Sunday, July 6, 2025:

✅ 1. Overall Market Structure

🔷 Daily timeframe (long-term trend)

✔️ Trend:

• Price has made new highs, closing above 625, and is near the upper boundary of its accelerating rising channel on the daily chart.
• MACD: Strong bullish crossover with widening histogram bars; no signs of negative divergence yet.
• RSI: Rising to relatively high levels, but not in extreme overbought territory, with no obvious bearish divergence.

✔️ Support levels:

• Daily EMA15 support: ~610-612
• Daily EMA30 support: ~600

✔️ Resistance levels:

• Previous highs at 630-635; breaking above this could lead to a new accelerated uptrend.

🔷 Hourly timeframe (short-term rhythm)

✔️ Trend:

• Hourly chart shows:
• Previous attempts to hold above the -61.8% extension (~615) failed, triggering a pullback, but price quickly recovered to make new highs.
• EMA15 and EMA30 remain in bullish alignment.

✔️ Signals:

• Hourly MACD has a bullish crossover with renewed upward momentum.
• RSI is at relatively high levels but has not formed a clear bearish divergence.

✔️ Short-term supports:

• Hourly EMA15 support: ~620-622
• Hourly EMA30 support: ~615-617

🔑 2. Key Conclusions

✔️ Overall trend: Uptrend remains intact, with strong alignment between daily and hourly charts.

✔️ Short-term caution: After consecutive accelerated gains, pullback probability increases, especially if unable to break through 630-635.

✔️ Critical observations:

• If price falls below hourly EMA30 (615-617) with volume, the likelihood of a deeper pullback to 605-610 increases.
• If it holds above hourly EMA15, even a minor pullback is likely a healthy correction.

📝 3. Strategy for the Coming Week

🗓️ 4. Key Dates This Week

Date Event / Focus

Mon, July 7 Monitor opening pullback to EMA15 support

Wed, July 9 Fed Chair speech (if any), potential short-term volatility

Thu, July 10 US CPI release, the most significant macro event of the week

Fri, July 11 Weekly close determines trend strength for next week

💡 5. Tactical Recommendations

🔹 Stay flexible:

Half position is optimal for flexibility; add on pullbacks, lightly chase on breakouts, and reduce quickly if bearish signals emerge.

🔹 Defensive levels:

• Short-term defense: 615 (hourly EMA30 breakdown)
• Medium-term defense: 605 (daily EMA15 breakdown)

🔹 Target levels:

• First target: 630-635
• Second target (if breakout is strong): 640-645

🔭 6. Final Summary

• Maintain a bullish bias with a buy-on-dip strategy.
• Avoid going all-in at highs unless a confirmed pullback support is established.
• Keep positions at 50-70% ahead of CPI to reduce risk from unexpected volatility.

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