以下为最新的日线信号图与小时信号图的SPY 7月14日–7月18日投资分析报告，followed by English version .

📅 市场背景（截至7月12日，周六）

🕒 1. 小时图概览

• 最新价格: 623.62
• 当前信号:
• 前一信号: Short（做空）
• 最新信号: Close Sell（平空，短线空头信号结束）
• MACD: 已确认死叉，跌破 -1，显示短线动能转弱
• RSI: 向下运行，短线强势消退

🔎 解读：

小时级别动能转弱，虽空头信号结束，但尚未出现新一轮买入信号，短线存在调整或震荡整固的风险。

📅 2. 日线图概览

• 最新价格: 623.62
• 当前信号: Buy（6月2日产生，至今累计收益 +5.22%）
• MACD: 维持在 +1 以上，动能强势
• RSI: 保持上行，没有明显顶背离

🔎 解读：

日线趋势依然健康，动能维持强势，且历史统计显示：

• 日线Buy信号成功率 77.14%，平均收益 +2.67%
• 日线Sell信号成功率仅 58.93%

显示当前多头结构稳定，尚未出现结束信号。

🎯 3. 目标价与关键技术位

区间方向 目标位 / 压力位 支撑位

短线（小时级别） 625 – 628（上周高点阻力）

630（心理关口及潜在上轨延伸） 618 – 620（小时级别支撑）

611 – 612（日线 EMA15 与短期支撑）

中线（日线级别） 630 – 635（Fibonacci扩展及心理目标）611（日线 EMA30），若跌破则关注 601（前期0%回撤位）

🗓️ 4. 下周（7月14–18日）展望

🔮 趋势研判

• 主要趋势（中期）: 日线Buy信号仍在，动能稳定，维持多头结构
• 短线趋势（小时级别）: MACD死叉，短线动能转弱，需防回调

💡 5. 操作建议

✅ 若当前满仓：

• 维持核心多单
• 暂不建议加仓，等待小时图Buy信号确认后再补仓

✅ 若当前半仓（此前已部分止盈）：

• 观望，等待小时图出现Buy信号
• 若回调至 618–620 支撑区 稳定，可少量试仓

✅ 若考虑对冲：

• 小时空头信号已结束，不建议追空
• 若MACD继续走弱且无反转，可小仓位对冲（如买入少量短期期权）

⚠️ 6. 风险提示

• 小时图MACD跌破-1，短线仍有回调压力
• 若价格跌破 611–612，需防日线EMA30失守引发进一步调整
• 需密切关注日线MACD是否出现顶背离，若出现，将是趋势转弱信号

📝 7. 总结

周期趋势建议日线Buy信号维持，动能强持有核心多仓，暂不加仓小时空头信号结束，但MACD死叉向下等待Buy信号确认，不追高，不追空

🚨 最终结论

⚠️ 日线维持多头结构，但短线需防回调

📌 本周策略: 稳守核心仓位，等待小时Buy信号出现再加仓，避免在短线弱势期追高。

⚠️ 风险免责声明（Risk Disclaimer）

以上交易计划仅供教育和信息参考之用，不构成任何金融或投资建议。投资交易具有风险，包括本金亏损的风险。过往表现不代表未来结果。您应对自己的投资决策负责。在进行任何投资或交易前，请务必咨询具有资质的金融顾问。

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📅 Market Context (as of July 12, Saturday)

🕒 1-Hour Chart Summary

• Latest price: 623.62
• Current signal:
• Previous: Short (sell) signal
• Latest: Close Sell (i.e. short position closed, no active short)
• MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed, below -1 indicating downward momentum.
• RSI: Trending down, suggesting weakening intraday strength.

🔎 Interpretation:

• Short-term (hourly): Momentum has turned negative with MACD below -1. Although the immediate sell signal has closed, no new buy signal is generated yet, implying short-term weakness or sideways consolidation before a potential next move.

📅 Daily Chart Summary

• Latest price: 623.62
• Current signal: Buy (since June 2) with +5.22% return so far
• MACD: Remains above +1, suggesting bullish daily momentum is intact.
• RSI: In uptrend territory without divergence signs yet.

🔎 Interpretation:

• Medium-term (daily): Momentum continues to support an ongoing bullish trend with no topping signals. The recent upward extension remains statistically valid given:
• Historical daily buy signal success rate: 77.14%, average return +2.67% per signal.
• Daily sell signals historically have only 58.93% success, implying current long bias is stronger.

🗓️ Week of July 14–18 Outlook

🔮 Overall Trend

• Primary Trend: Bullish (daily buy signal remains valid, MACD strong)
• Short-term Risks:
• Hourly MACD breakdown below -1 suggests imminent intraday pullback or choppy sessions early in the week.
• Lack of an hourly buy signal implies caution before re-adding short-term positions.

💡 Strategic Recommendations

1. If Currently Fully Invested:

• Maintain core long positions based on daily chart strength.
• Do not add new positions immediately until an hourly buy signal is confirmed.

1. If Currently Half Position (After Prior Profit Taking):

• Wait for hourly buy signal to re-add exposure.
• Monitor for intraday supports near 618–620 as potential re-entry zones.

1. Hedging / Short Opportunities:

• Given that the hourly short signal has closed and daily remains strong, avoid aggressive shorting.
• Tactical short-term hedges (eg. covered calls) can be considered only if hourly MACD continues declining without divergence reversal.

1. Key Technical Levels Next Week:

• Support zones: 618 (hourly support), then 611–612 (daily minor support)
• Resistance zones: Recent highs near 625–628, then psychological 630.

⚠️ Risk Note

• While daily trend remains bullish, hourly MACD’s bearish crossover below -1 indicates possible downside tests early in the week.
• Best course of action: Wait for hourly buy confirmation before deploying additional capital, preserving capital efficiency within an overall uptrend.

📊 Final Summary

✅ Daily trend: Bullish, signal active since June 2

⚠️ Hourly trend: Momentum turned bearish, short-term caution advised

💡 Action plan: Hold core positions, avoid adding until hourly buy triggers, and consider tactical hedges only if hourly continues declining without reversal.

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