📈 Market Recap (July 14, 2025)

🔹 Macro Context

• Key drivers today:
• Market digested last Friday’s better-than-expected US CPI, reinforcing expectations of a September Fed rate cut.
• Treasury yields edged down slightly, supporting equities early, but tech-heavy momentum faded late in the day.
• Fed Governor comments suggested inflation progress is “encouraging but incomplete,” tempering bullish enthusiasm.
• Sector performance:
• Tech & AI: Mixed. Large caps reversed intraday gains due to profit-taking.
• Financials & Energy: Slightly positive, supported by stable yields and oil prices hovering near $78/bbl.
• Utilities & Defensive sectors: Flat to slightly down as market rotated risk assets midday.

🔹 Global sentiment

• Asia closed mixed overnight with China announcing minor stimulus on property-backed bonds.
• Europe edged higher on positive industrial production data but showed caution ahead of US earnings season starting tomorrow.

🔍 Chart Analysis Summary

1. Trend & Signals

• Early session: A sharp drop triggered a close of previous long.
• Mid session: Two sequential buy signals appeared with positive MACD crossover and yellow line upward slope.
• Late session: Price lost momentum, SELL signal fired as MACD turned sharply negative and histogram bars extended below baseline.

1. Indicators

• MACD (middle pane):
• Showed bullish divergence mid-session then rolled over strongly into negative territory by close.
• Longer-term oscillator (bottom pane):
• Turning downwards, suggesting short-term momentum reversal aligning with SELL.

1. Key Support & Resistance

• Resistance: ~6315.75 (session high, upper green band).
• Support: ~6300 (psychological and band midpoint), then ~6285.

1. Risk Context

• Futures closed below the mid-session consolidation range, indicating potential continuation of this pullback if overnight momentum remains weak.
• However, macro context (rate cut expectations, upcoming earnings) may limit downside if no new negative catalyst emerges.

⚠️ Strategic Takeaways

✅ Bullish case (tomorrow):

• If overnight data or bank earnings beat expectations, ES may attempt to reclaim 6310-6315 and retest highs.

❌ Bearish case:

• Failure to hold above 6300 overnight could lead to tests of deeper support near 6285 or the prior session’s low.

📅 Upcoming events to watch this week:

• Tuesday: Major US bank earnings kickoff (JPM, GS)
• Wednesday: US PPI inflation
• Thursday: Jobless claims
• Friday: University of Michigan consumer sentiment