📈 指数收盘亮点

• 道琼斯工业平均指数上涨约0.52%，报 44,484.49
• 标普500指数上涨约0.54%，报 6,297.36，创历史新高
• 纳斯达克综合指数上涨约0.74%，报 20,884.27，连续第六次在近七个交易日收于新高
• Russell 2000小盘股指数上涨1.2%，收于 2,253.68

本周，标普500上涨0.6%，道指涨0.3%，纳指涨1.5%，Russell 2000涨0.8%

🔍 推动因素分析

1. 强劲宏观经济数据

• 6月美国零售销售环比增长0.6%，超出预期，显示消费稳健
• 每周首次申领失业救济人数下降，表明就业市场持续健康
• 费城联储指数、亚特兰大GDPNow模型转为乐观，预计第二季度GDP增速约2.4%

2. 企业财报超预期

• 台积电公布创纪录利润，股价上涨4%（约3.4–4%区间）
• **联合航空（United Airlines）**二季度业绩亮眼，股价上涨3.1%
• **百事公司（PepsiCo）**收入与利润超预期，股价上涨7.5%
• Lucid股价飙涨36–44%，因与Uber达成Robotaxi合作
• GE Aerospace尽管业绩优于预期，股价仍下跌约2%

3. 科技板块持续领涨

• NVIDIA创下新高，市值突破4万亿美元，纳指大涨
• AI芯片需求强劲，台积电带动相关科技股集体上扬

4. 美联储政策与贸易动态

• 尽管美总统曾提及可能对150多个国家征收10–15%关税，但市场似乎对联储大幅降息时机持谨慎态度
• 美联储多位官员表示将等待更多数据，不急于降息

📝 总结观点

周四美股全面收涨，创近期纪录高点。主要原因包括消费者支出强劲、初请失业金人数减少、就业和消费表现稳健，以及台积电、百事、联合航空等龙头企业优异业绩，加上AI芯片需求依然火热。投资者信心增强，尽管地缘政治与关税仍存在潜在扰动，但市场目前更关注实质性数据和盈利。

接下来关注：

• 下周大科技公司财报（如苹果、Alphabet 等）
• 美联储会议纪要释放的政策信号
• 8月1日起的潜在关税行动对消费和通胀的影响 

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closed at $628.04, up $3.55 (0.57%) from the previous close. The intraday high was $628.87, the low was $623.72, and it opened at $624.42 with a volume of 68,885,683.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) closed at $561.80, up $4.37 (0.78%) from the previous close. The intraday high was $562.51, the low was $557.29, and it opened at $558.00 with a volume of 40,423,778.

📈 Key Index Closing Highlights

• Dow Jones Industrial Average rose ~0.52% to 44,484.49
• S&P 500 gained ~0.54% to 6,297.36, reaching a new all-time high
• Nasdaq Composite rose ~0.74% to 20,884.27, closing at a record high for the sixth time in the past seven trading days
• Russell 2000 small-cap index climbed 1.2% to 2,253.68

For the week so far: S&P 500 is up 0.6%, Dow up 0.3%, Nasdaq up 1.5%, and Russell 2000 up 0.8%.

🔍 Market Drivers

1. Strong Macro Data

• US retail sales for June grew 0.6% month-over-month, beating expectations and showing robust consumer spending.
• Weekly initial jobless claims fell, indicating continued labor market strength.
• The Philadelphia Fed index and Atlanta Fed GDPNow model turned more optimistic, with Q2 GDP growth now projected around 2.4%.

2. Corporate Earnings Beat

• TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor) reported record profits, with its shares rising around 3.4–4%.
• United Airlines posted strong Q2 results, shares up 3.1%.
• PepsiCo beat on both revenue and earnings, with its shares soaring 7.5%.
• Lucid surged 36–44% after announcing a robotaxi partnership with Uber.
• GE Aerospace beat earnings expectations but shares still fell about 2%.

3. Tech Sector Leadership

• NVIDIA hit a fresh record high, pushing its market cap above $4 trillion, boosting Nasdaq gains.
• AI chip demand remained strong, lifting related semiconductor and tech stocks.

4. Fed Policy & Trade Developments

• Despite recent presidential remarks suggesting possible 10–15% tariffs on over 150 countries, markets are cautious about the timing of Fed rate cuts.
• Multiple Fed officials indicated they would wait for more data and are in no rush to cut rates.

📝 Summary

US stocks closed broadly higher Thursday, reaching new record highs. The rally was driven by strong consumer spending data, declining jobless claims, robust labor and consumption conditions, and outstanding earnings from TSMC, PepsiCo, and United Airlines. Persistent AI chip momentum further boosted tech stocks. While geopolitical risks and tariff threats remain potential headwinds, investors are currently focusing on solid economic data and corporate earnings.

Looking Ahead:

• Upcoming big tech earnings (Apple, Alphabet, etc.) next week
• Fed meeting minutes for policy signals
• Possible August 1 tariff actions and their impact on consumption and inflation

📝 最新信号图|Latest Signal