15分钟信号图：

小时信号图：

📊 一、当前盘面状态（截至上周五收盘）

1. 信号状态

• 策略显示仍处于Buy（买）状态，信号触发于 8 月 6 日 13:00，目前持仓收益约 +0.71%。
• 核心趋势线（黄色长均线）保持向上，白色长周期均线在更低位置支撑。

1. MACD（量化版）

• 白线（快线）仍在黄线（慢线）上方 → 多头趋势保持。
• 但动能柱已经开始出现放缓迹象，且接近上方压力位。

1. RSI（量化版）

• 白线同样在黄线上方，且已经突破中性区 50 之上，处于多头区间。
• 还没到 70 的超买区，但接近历史回落区域。

1. 价格位置

• 已经接近近期高位区间（历史高位压力区），短线面临一定阻力。

📅 二、下周走势情景推演

1. 多头延续情景（概率偏高）

• 小时级别买信号延续，MACD/RSI 维持上行或横盘震荡。
• 如果价格突破前高（SPY 对应 639.85），则可能带动新一轮加速上涨。
• QQQ 已经先行突破，SPY 若补涨，将形成指数共振拉升。

操作策略

• 核心仓位（50%）继续持有，直到小时买信号结束。
• 短线仓位可在突破前高时加码，但需跟进止损。

2. 高位震荡回踩情景（概率中等）

• 短周期（15 分钟）信号转弱 → 带来小时级别的动能衰减。
• MACD 红柱缩短并下穿 0 轴，可能触发策略卖信号。
• 价格回踩小时均线或EMA30/EMA50后再决定方向。

操作策略

• 短线仓位可在 15 分钟卖信号时先行减仓。
• 核心仓暂不动，除非小时信号翻空。
• 关注回踩支撑位的反应，支撑失守才减核心仓。

3. 反转下行情景（概率较低）

• 下周初如果出现快速回落并击穿小时信号止损线，将引发趋势级别转空。
• 此时高胜率买信号将失效，应快速出清多单。

操作策略

• 小时信号一旦翻空，清掉所有多仓，等待新的买点。

🎯 三、关键价位与指标

指标 重要参考值 含义

SPY 压力位 639.85 前高，突破才有新动能

SPY 支撑位 630~632 短期支撑，失守则调整

MACD 0 轴 ±0.0 跌破是弱化信号

RSI 中枢线 50 跌破则趋势减弱

📌 结论

• 下周策略核心：核心仓继续跟随小时信号，交易仓灵活应对15分钟信号。
• 重点观察：SPY能否跟随QQQ突破前高；MACD是否在高位出现死叉并回落到0轴。
• 防守意识：若小时信号翻空，不论盈亏先全仓退出。

⚠️ 风险免责声明（Risk Disclaimer）

以上交易计划仅供教育和信息参考之用，不构成任何金融或投资建议。投资交易具有风险，包括本金亏损的风险。过往表现不代表未来结果。您应对自己的投资决策负责。在进行任何投资或交易前，请务必咨询具有资质的金融顾问。

📊 1. Current Market Status (as of last Friday’s Close)

1. Signal Status

• The strategy is still showing a Buy signal, triggered on August 6th at 13:00, with a current return of around +0.71%.
• The core trend line (long yellow MA) is sloping upward, and the long-term white MA remains well below as support.

1. MACD (Quantitative)

• The white line (fast) is above the yellow line (slow) → bullish trend intact.
• However, the histogram shows signs of slowing momentum, approaching the resistance zone.

1. RSI (Quantitative)

• The white line is also above the yellow line, breaking above the neutral 50 level into bullish territory.
• Still below the 70 overbought zone but near historical pullback levels.

1. Price Action

• Price is approaching recent highs (historical resistance zone), with short-term overhead pressure.

📅 2. Next Week Scenarios

1. Bullish Continuation Scenario (Higher Probability)

• Hourly Buy signal continues, with MACD/RSI maintaining an uptrend or consolidating sideways.
• A breakout above the previous high (SPY equivalent 639.85) could trigger another wave of acceleration.
• QQQ has already broken out; if SPY follows, index rally could see strong upward momentum.

Trading Strategy

• Keep the core position (50%) until the hourly Buy signal ends.
• Add to short-term positions if price breaks above previous highs, but use tight stop-loss management.

2. High-Level Consolidation / Pullback Scenario (Moderate Probability)

• Short-term (15-min) signals weaken → hourly momentum slows.
• MACD histogram shortens and crosses below the zero line, potentially triggering a Sell signal.
• Price may retest hourly moving averages (EMA30/EMA50) before deciding the next direction.

Trading Strategy

• Trim short-term positions when 15-min Sell signals appear.
• Keep the core position unless the hourly signal turns bearish.
• Watch reaction at support zones; only reduce core holdings if key support fails.

3. Bearish Reversal Scenario (Lower Probability)

• If early next week sees a sharp drop breaking the hourly stop-loss level , the trend will flip bearish.
• The high-probability Buy signal would then be invalidated — all long positions should be closed quickly.

Trading Strategy

• Exit all longs immediately if hourly signal flips to Sell, then wait for the next Buy setup.

📌 Conclusion

• Core Strategy for Next Week: Hold the core position as long as the hourly Buy signal remains active; trade short-term positions flexibly with 15-min signals.
• Key Focus: Whether SPY follows QQQ in breaking the previous high; watch MACD for a potential bearish crossover and move toward the zero line.
• Risk Management: If the hourly signal flips bearish, exit all positions regardless of current gains or losses.