Market outlook for January 7, 2025: SPY

zychen Posted on 2025-01-07 23:47 ET total Views: 39

Comparison Between Area A and Area B

  1. Price Action:
  • In Area A (Dec 26–27, 2024), the sell signal accurately predicted a significant decline. After the sell signal, the price broke below the moving averages, with continued downward momentum.
  • In Area B (Jan 6–7, 2025), the sell signal similarly led to a decline. The price has dropped below key moving averages, showing a pattern of weakness comparable to Area A.
  1. Indicators:
  • MACD:In both areas, MACD lines crossed downward following the sell signals, with the histogram turning red and widening, indicating strong bearish momentum.
  • RSI:In both cases, RSI was declining from overbought or neutral levels and moved into bearish territory, confirming the sell signal.
  1. Structure Similarities:
  • Both areas exhibit initial hesitation or minor upward corrections post-sell signal, followed by decisive downward moves.
  • The decline in Area B mirrors the sharp trend continuation seen in Area A, suggesting strong bearish control.

Market Outlook for Tomorrow

  1. Bearish Momentum Likely to Continue:
  • Based on the pattern similarity between Area A and Area B, further downside is expected. The market appears to be in a short-term corrective phase.
  • Key support levels will likely be tested tomorrow. If these are broken, it could lead to accelerated selling.
  1. Key Levels to Watch:
  • Support: Look for support near $585 (previous low or psychological level). If this is breached, further declines toward $581 are plausible.
  • Resistance: Upside resistance is expected near $591, where selling pressure could resume if the price attempts a bounce.
  1. Indicators to Monitor:
  • MACD: Watch for further widening of the histogram and sustained downward crossover as a confirmation of bearish momentum.
  • RSI: A move deeper into oversold territory could signal continuation of the downtrend, but a bounce near oversold levels might indicate a potential short-term retracement.

Suggested Trading Strategy

  1. Short-Term Approach:
  • Bearish Strategy: Enter short positions or purchase put options, targeting the $581–$585 support zone.
  • Stop-Loss: Set stop-loss just above $591 (recent resistance level) to manage risk.
  1. If Support Holds:
  • Be prepared for a potential bounce if the market finds buying interest near support levels. In this case, consider short-term long positions with tight risk management.
  1. Market Confirmation:
  • Use the opening momentum and early price action tomorrow to confirm direction. If the price decisively breaks below support on high volume, the bearish outlook strengthens.

This setup suggests caution for bullish positions until clear reversal signals appear. Focus on protecting capital while leveraging the current bearish momentum.


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